Peak season prep: How 10 ops leaders across ecomm and supply chain get it done

When asked what unique challenges this peak season has been bringing for brands, supply chain expert Matt Hertz had a laundry list of potential disruptions vexing his clients: inevitable changes to the de minimis laws, shipping parcel carriers abruptly going out of business, port strikes, and uncertainty around November’s election were just a few. 

And headlines would suggest that these are all viable concerns for any brand that needs to get goods to a customer — or any business that’s helping move that freight. 

We checked in with Parabola’s advisors, a group of ops leaders across industries, for their thoughts: What did you do well this year in preparation? What challenges does the current landscape present? Anything you wish you had done differently in hindsight? 

Overall, there’s a collective wish for a crystal ball. Folks are wondering how they could have predicted the east coast strikes. Is it possible to get ahead of parcel rate increases? Which way will relevant legislation turn?

“It’s hard not being a pessimist working in global supply chain,” Paige Zachs, VP of Supply Chain + Ops at Coterie, told us in response to the hard-to-predict challenges that seem endless. 

But the good news is that there’s also been a lot of positive preparation keeping everyone on top of the challenges at hand. Automation hacks, a reliance on data, and being proactive whenever possible are just a few things that have helped this group stay resilient during this time.

Here’s what else they had to say:

Aaron Alpeter, Founder @ Izba 

On how brands are tempering expectations and proactively safeguarding profitability

“One of the most interesting trends I’ve seen is that many brands are tempering their expectations for this peak season, focusing on profitable growth rather than growth for its own sake. Several nine-figure brand CEO’s I’ve spoken with are incorporating risk into their plans due to the stupid amount of money flowing into digital channels around the election. After the election, all of the pent-up brand marketing budgets are likely to be funneled into Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals which will keep CAC’s elevated this year. Smart brands are taking proactive steps to safeguard their profitability this year.

I’m closely watching how under-a-pound parcel networks perform this year. The USPS decision to effectively eliminate the workshare program has already led consolidators like Pitney Bowes to discontinue those operations, causing a significant volume of shipments to seek new providers just before peak season. These networks may not be prepared for the added strain. If I could go back, I’d advise brands to establish more distribution points to be closer to their customers and reduce reliance on these networks.”

Alex Kazickas, VP of Ops @ Primary 

On keeping customer feedback top of mind — and aligning with your 3PL on corrective actions

“I’m a big believer in ’What gets measured, gets improved.’ 

So in prep for peak season, we better consolidated customer feedback data to track and discover shipping and fulfillment error trends. Partnering with our 3PL, we held weekly meetings reviewing this data, identifying the root causes, and aligning on corrective actions. These improvements across multiple issues will have a significant impact both internally and with our customers, especially as order volumes scale in Q4.

The landscape of supply chain and logistics is constantly changing. From unpredictable peak parcel surcharges to port strikes, it’s increasingly important not only to be aware of potential risks as early as possible, but translate them to concrete metrics that clearly show business impact. This year has been a good reminder of the importance of investing in industry insights and creating impact models so businesses can make the best possible decisions.”

Lindsay Keys, Director of Logistics @ Brooklinen

On on-site 3PL kickoffs and prepping for what happens post-peak

“We host on-site kickoffs with our 3PLs every year to align on all operational aspects that occur within the facilities (order + receiving forecasts, carrier pickups, labor + shifts, packaging, cycle counts, etc). We love to get the energy + excitement building with the teams that get our inventory in and out the door.

We also have constant conversations about what happens after peak. It’s important to make sure we don’t take our foot off the gas after peak, but also feel prepared about our strategy (versus building it during our pop).

Overall, peak is always on our mind — we focus on continuous optimization throughout the year to ensure we can execute strong and deliver for our customers!”

Keith Frymark, SVP Supply Chain + Quality @ Seed Health

On collaborating with internal stakeholders to align on Q4 expectations

“We’ve been planning ahead for potential east coast port strike, escalating risks in monthly S&OP and building up inventory ahead of time, as well as sharing growth and order plans with warehouses to prep labor needs.

We also host cross-functional meetings with growth, marketing, brands, leadership to align on expectations for Q4/peak in advance for ops to support and not be blindsided by unexpected events.”

Matt Hertz, Founder @ ThirdPerson

On juggling the many macro variables at play

“This peak season is a little peculiar (but don’t we say that every year?!) in that there’s a number of massive macro variables at play. Brands I am working with are dealing with anything from inevitable changes to the de minimis laws, to shipping parcel carriers abruptly going out of business, potential port strikes, and uncertainty around November’s election and what it means for trade/business in 2025 and beyond. Any of these headlines has the potential to severely impact how brands operate, which adds uncertainty, risk, and cost to an already sensitive supply chain

The ’smartest’ brands are aware of these issues and are working to minimize the adverse impact through building contingency/redundancy into their supply chains. Problems become solvable when you are able to plan and bake in reserves for unforeseen circumstances.

I wish I knew with certainty what would happen with global trade/sourcing/manufacturing in the next 12 months. The uncertainty around what might happen is already creating a ripple effect with high costs of air/ocean freight, backlogs at the port, and a renewed interest towards onshoring. The ability to anticipate and accurately predict changes and outcomes is beginning to separate those brands who turn profitability, with those who are challenged by excessive costs.”

Paige Zachs, VP of Supply Chain + Ops @ Coterie

On using forecasts to negotiate with supply chain partners

“Diapers aren’t a seasonal product, nor do we really run promotions as a business. Also, because the majority of our customers are subscribers who stay with us for a long time (through potty training!),our business is highly forecastable. 

Therefore, we use our accurate forecasts to our advantage when negotiating with supply chain partners. For example, we were able to negotiate discounts off the typical peak season surcharge issued by parcel carriers precisely because our business is not seasonal and we provide accurate forecasts.

Overall, I wish I could crystal ball global supply chain better! I did not anticipate how steep the UPS holiday surcharges would be this year nor did I anticipate another port strike. It’s hard not being a pessimist working in global supply chain!”

James Hargett, Director of Ops @ Chubbies

On getting proactive with technology

“One thing that we’ve done is proactively build out some flows in Parabola to track inbound associated with the peak period so we have our finger right on the pulse of the status of those goods.

And one thing I wish we had done differently is position some of our markdown inventory more strategically in our two DCs to help minimize the impact of split shipping a bit more.”

Patrick Ringston, COO @ Optech Group, former Casper + Blue Apron

On stress testing revenue forecasting and supply planning processes

“Planning, planning, planning…I spent the better part of the summer working with a client to establish and stress test their revenue forecasting and supply planning processes. We developed a baseline model along with optimistic and conservative views and landed on what level of tolerance we had for a miss (i.e. high and low) to ensure we had the right supply and safety stock heading into the most crucial time of year.

There’s nothing I wish I had done differently, per se, but what I see very often with clients is they tend to think of peak as this isolated event that we need to start working on in the summer. A lesson I learned early in my career when I was at UPS was that peak planning starts on January 1st and it’s the crescendo that we are constantly building and prepping for.”

Bill Shube, Supply Chain Ops + Tech 

On understanding what internal stakeholders really need

“We have better visibility into the health of our inventory than we ever have before. Lots data flowing, all right at our fingertips.

I wish we had done a bit more to pin down our stakeholders to understand exactly what they need to do their job better. We have a general sense and will be able to respond to last-minute requests because we have so much data flowing now — but the ‘analytics final mile’ is always complicated. The more we know early about their exact needs, the better we can deliver to their needs.”

Nate Peterson, VP of Ops and Logistics @ Tecovas

On automating as much as possible to create “heartbeat reporting”

“We are working to automate all our daily shipping, throughput, and overall state of our distribution center. We are calling this our heartbeat reporting. This should be something we have in place in the next few days.

Port strikes are not ideal. We are working to do a better job with visibility on our entire supply chain and leaning in on our supply to demand planning with our launch in the wholesale channel.”