How to model tariff scenarios across countries in Parabola
- Before customizing the model, we recommend watching this video overview to familiarize yourself with the Flow
- After duplicating the Flow, select the HTS chapters relevant to your SKU catalog for faster processing in the 'HTS code category filtering' card
- Next, in the ‘Select countries for model’ card, put an ‘x’ next to all countries that you’d like to include in the comparison
- In the ‘Upload product-HTS code master file’ card, replace the sample CSV with your real data. Reference the data schema outlined in the card for smooth upload.
- Create additional visualizations or tables to analyze the data, or export the data to a CSV, Google Sheet, etc.
- Customize the model based on your product collection—for instance, if you need to incorporate exceptions or new countries
Video overview
Why Parabola
As soon as we launched the first component of the automation, we saw an increase in our top-line compliance figure. It’s almost like every week we hit a new all time best.
Tariff scenario modeling is the process of estimating expected duty costs based on combinations of country-specific tariff rates, HTS codes, and applicable trade agreements. This process often includes modeling additional temporary duties (like 2025 Liberation Day tariffs) and accounting for the different ways tariffs are calculated (e.g., ad valorem, per unit, hybrid).
With Parabola, you can plug in your product catalog, select countries of interest, and dynamically model duty scenarios across your SKUs. This customizable Template blends MFN rates, country-specific rates, Section 301 tariffs, and Liberation Day tariffs into a single model — giving you a clear interface for comparing duty exposure by HTS code and country. Get rapid visibility into expected duties and tie the output directly into your landed cost or OPEX models.
- Make sure your products are correctly classified before running the model
- Incorporate this data into other processes like a landed cost or OPEX analysis
- If your imports are subject to exemptions or are not USMCA-compliant, make sure to update the Flow accordingly
- If a country of interest is missing, add it to both the 'Tariff reference sheet' and the 'Country selection' tables
- Need to first classify your products with HTS codes? Check out our HTS code classification Template.
- To start building your own tariff scenario modeling Flow, check out the Template above and Parabola University
- Classify products under the right HTS codes using the USITC API and Parabola’s product classification workflow.
In today’s volatile trade environment, it’s more critical than ever to model tariff scenarios quickly across countries of origin and diverse HTS codes. However, this gets difficult when you’re dealing with messy USITC data, adjusting for Liberation Day duty increases, Section 301 tariffs, and managing a massive SKU catalog—especially since each duty must be calculated differently based on both HTS code and country of origin.
Effective tools let you normalize USITC or customs data, apply duty rate changes (including temporary hikes like Liberation Day or Section 301), and dynamically recalculate across a large SKU catalog—without manual spreadsheets or IT bottlenecks.
Tariff rules and duty rates often vary not just by HTS code but also by the country of origin—and these can fluctuate frequently due to changes in trade policy. Having a flexible modeling system allows you to adapt quickly to updates and simulate multiple scenarios without rebuilding custom workflows. Learn more about managing these complexities in our Tariff Readiness Hub.
Inadequate scenario planning can result in unforeseen overpayment of duties, miscalculated landed costs, and compliance risks—all of which impact your pricing, margins, and legal exposure. Scalable, automated tariff modeling helps you accurately forecast duty costs and stay audit-ready, even as duty policies evolve by HTS code or country.
