Tariff scenario modeling
How to model tariff scenarios across countries
It’s never been more critical to have a fast, flexible way to model tariff scenarios across countries of origin and HTS codes. But doing so is tough when you're wrangling messy USITC data, accounting for Liberation Day duty increases and Section 301 tariffs, and working across a massive SKU catalog — especially when each duty needs to be calculated differently at the HTS code and country level.
With Parabola, you can plug in your product catalog, select countries of interest, and dynamically model duty scenarios across your SKUs. This customizable Template blends MFN rates, country-specific rates, Section 301 tariffs, and Liberation Day tariffs into a single model — giving you a clear interface for comparing duty exposure by HTS code and country. Get rapid visibility into expected duties and tie the output directly into your landed cost or OPEX models.
Video overview
Why Parabola
As soon as we launched the first component of the automation, we saw an increase in our top-line compliance figure. It’s almost like every week we hit a new all time best.
Tariff scenario modeling is the process of estimating expected duty costs based on combinations of country-specific tariff rates, HTS codes, and applicable trade agreements. This process often includes modeling additional temporary duties (like 2025 Liberation Day tariffs) and accounting for the different ways tariffs are calculated (e.g., ad valorem, per unit, hybrid).
- Before customizing the model, we recommend watching this video overview to familiarize yourself with the Flow
- After duplicating the Flow, select the HTS chapters relevant to your SKU catalog for faster processing in the 'HTS code category filtering' card
- Next, in the ‘Select countries for model’ card, put an ‘x’ next to all countries that you’d like to include in the comparison
- In the ‘Upload product-HTS code master file’ card, replace the sample CSV with your real data. Reference the data schema outlined in the card for smooth upload.
- Create additional visualizations or tables to analyze the data, or export the data to a CSV, Google Sheet, etc.
- Customize the model based on your product collection—for instance, if you need to incorporate exceptions or new countries
- Make sure your products are correctly classified before running the model
- Incorporate this data into other processes like a landed cost or OPEX analysis
- If your imports are subject to exemptions or are not USMCA-compliant, make sure to update the Flow accordingly
- If a country of interest is missing, add it to both the 'Tariff reference sheet' and the 'Country selection' tables
- Need to first classify your products with HTS codes? Check out our HTS code classification Template.
- To start building your own tariff scenario modeling Flow, check out the Template above and Parabola University
